Bitcoin: experienced traders still cautious

By: bitcoin ethereum news|2025/05/14 00:45:05

In recent days, the daily RSI index of Bitcoin has risen above 70 points, which means it is in the overbought zone. However, while this is true for newcomers, things change when analyzing the behavior of more experienced traders. This is what emerges from a recent analysis by Glassnode , which reveals that only newcomers and those taking profit are particularly active during this period. The new phase of the Bitcoin (BTC) price The correction of the price of Bitcoin , following the boom at the end of 2024 triggered by the electoral victory of Donald Trump, is now over. It started between the end of January and the beginning of February, and it went on for more than two months, until mid-April. However, starting from April 21, there was a strong and rapid rebound, which effectively closed the correction phase. In theory, since the end of April, a new ascending phase seems to have begun, but Glassnode points out that much more caution is needed in this type of judgment. In fact, the only ones to have recovered are the purchases of inexperienced traders and those looking for short-term profits, while there has not yet been an increase in purchases by holders or more experienced traders. The anticipation of a new Bitcoin rally? The hypothesis circulating is that the rise in the price of BTC that began at the end of April is somewhat ahead of the natural trend of Bitcoin in the post-election years. There is, in particular, an element that supports this hypothesis, namely the strong and rapid rise of the sentiment. The fear&greed index of CMC has shifted from the strong fear of mid-April to the strong enthusiasm of last week, practically reversing in just three weeks. This clearly indicates that there are strong emotional movements at play, and it aligns with what Glassnode has discovered, namely that the protagonists of the current moment are the less experienced traders (those who are more influenced by emotions). The fact that the more experienced traders are still cautious suggests that in theory there could still be room for a further correction, even if the macro-economic and financial picture currently seems to point in the other direction, at least in the medium-short term. The bull run of Bitcoin Glassnode writes: “BTC: the supply mapping shows a sustained strength of new demand. The RSI of new buyers has remained at 100 throughout the week”. This sentiment so positive is most likely due to the anticipation for the restart of the bullrun, which, however, in other ways seems to be too early compared to the classic trend of the price of Bitcoin. In fact, the activity of more experienced investors has turned out to be much more limited, which may suggest a consolidation or a decline in the price of Bitcoin. Since less experienced traders are generally wrong, while more experienced ones are more likely to be right, perhaps it will be necessary to wait a little longer before the real restart of the bullrun. An excess of positive sentiment has led to a very broad and fast rebound, but perhaps too fast. “`html The weakness of the dollar “` The weakness of the dollar has certainly also helped. The Dollar Index (DXY) since mid-January had fallen from almost 110 points to less than 99, reached on April 21, but subsequently recorded a rebound to over 101 points. Although the current level is much lower compared to that of January – something that has helped the bull of Bitcoin – the bull of the last few days has probably slowed its momentum. At this point, if the Dollar Index were to remain at the current levels, or even rise further, some suffering for BTC is to be expected. However, the rebound of DXY could also have come to an end, and in that case, if the downward trend resumes, the rise of BTC could also resume. “`html The timing “` Something vaguely similar happened also in 2017. Even at that time, there was an initial rebound starting from the end of April, although at much lower price levels and with much higher growth percentages, but it was necessary to wait until the second half of May for the continuation of the bullrun. Then, to tell the truth, between the second half of June and the second half of July, there was a period of consolidation, followed in August by a new brief surge. In September, there was a real correction, followed in October by a speculative bubble that lasted three months, and then burst with the beginning of a deep bear-market that lasted about twelve months. It is by no means certain that such timings will repeat this year as well, but in both cases, it is the first year of Trump in the White House after winning the elections. Furthermore, even regarding traditional financial markets, the circulating hypothesis is that of a good 2025, possibly followed by one or two years of bear-market. In other words, even if a bullrun were to restart, one should not expect everything to rise for months without ever correcting and consolidating. Furthermore, there is always the risk that a bubble might inflate, and that it will inevitably end up bursting. Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/05/13/bitcoin-experienced-traders-still-cautious/

The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.

There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."

Question One: Is this encryption the same as Signal's encryption?

No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.

In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.

X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.

This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.

The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.

The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.

After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."

From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.

In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.

As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."

Issue 2: Does Grok know what you're messaging in private?

Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.

For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.

This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.

There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."

Issue 3: Why is there no Android version?

X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.

In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.

WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.

X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.

These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.

Elon Musk's "Super App"

This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.

X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.

Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.

The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.

X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.

The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.

Parse Noise's newly launched Beta version, how to "on-chain" this heat?

Noise is planning to launch its mainnet on Base in the coming months, at which point the platform will be open to everyone and support real-money trading.

Is Lobster a Thing of the Past? Unpacking the Hermes Agent Tools that Supercharge Your Throughput to 100x

The longer you use it, the smarter it gets, what makes Hermes, where developers have migrated to, special?

Declare War on AI? The Doomsday Narrative Behind Ultraman's Residence in Flames

When saving humanity becomes the sole criterion, action boundaries start to blur

Crypto VCs Are Dead? The Market Extinction Cycle Has Begun

In the face of high-quality projects, VCs are starting to shift from screeners to candidates.

Claude's Journey to Foolishness in Diagrams: The Cost of Thriftiness, or How API Bill Increased 100-Fold

From $300 to $40,000

Edge Land Regress: A Rehash Around Maritime Power, Energy, and the Dollar

Whoever controls the seas controls the monetary system; once trapped in an inland game, one will lose initiative

Arthur Hayes Latest Interview: How Should Retail Investors Navigate the Iran Conflict?

In the turbulent year of 2026, what are the truly valuable assets to hold?

Just now, Sam Altman was attacked again, this time by gunfire

Sam Altman's residence was shot at again, reflecting the deep anxiety and crisis of trust among the public regarding the accelerated evolution of AI into a "quasi-political force" and the lack of social checks and balances behind the extreme violence.

Straits Blockade, Stablecoin Recap | Rewire News Morning Edition

Oil Price Surges

From High Expectations to Controversial Turnaround, Genius Airdrop Triggers Community Backlash

The deadline for immediate claim is 7 days after TGE. If the user chooses immediate claim, 70% of the tokens will be automatically burned.

The Xiaomi electric vehicle factory in Beijing's Daxing district has become the new Jerusalem for the American elite

What exactly turns an automotive assembly line into a hot spot?

1 billion DOTs were minted out of thin air, but the hacker only made 230,000 dollars

Liquidity saved Polkadot's life.

After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, when will the war end?

The US has taken away Iran’s most important card, but has also lost the path to ending the war

Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions