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Bitcoin Faces Rare Fourth Consecutive Monthly Decline
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is on the brink of its fourth consecutive monthly decline, a situation unseen since the period between 2018 and 2019.
- The current Bitcoin price is hovering around $87,000, marking a slight decrease for January with just one trading week remaining.
- Spot market weakness contrasts with optimism in the derivatives market, where $100,000 call options hold significant value.
- The derivatives market suggests that traders are betting on a potential rebound to six-figure prices.
WEEX Crypto News, 26 January 2026
Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneering cryptocurrency that redefined digital currency since its inception in 2009 by the anonymous figure Satoshi Nakamoto, is experiencing yet another spell of bearish market activity. As of today, Bitcoin stands on the precipice of a rare fourth consecutive month of declining values, a phenomenon not witnessed since the bearish stretch from 2018 to 2019. During that historical downturn, Bitcoin underwent a six-month streak of depreciation, sparking concern among investors and analysts alike.
January 2026 has been challenging for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency seeing its price fluctuate to approximately $87,000, showing a minor decline for the month even as only one full trading week remains. This follows a series of downtrends in October, November, and December, where Bitcoin retreated from its October peak, witnessing a roughly 36% fall from high to low. Historically, even amidst severe downturns like the 2022 bear market—a period when Bitcoin’s value nosedived from $69,000 to $15,000—such sustained monthly declines were uncommon, capping at three consecutive months at most.
The bearish trend in the spot markets is nonetheless juxtaposed with an intriguing optimism observed in the derivatives market. A particular area of interest is the significant volume of $100,000 call options on exchanges like Deribit, where their notional value reaches nearly $900 million. This substantial activity reflects the market’s hope or bet on Bitcoin resurging past the $100,000 mark, climbing back into six-digit territory. Such speculation suggests a degree of confidence among traders that Bitcoin’s current downward spiral is a prelude to a strong bullish reversal.
The Evolution of Bitcoin Pricing
Bitcoin was introduced to the public as a decentralized digital currency, leveraging blockchain technology to ensure transactions that are both secure and transparent. Its journey from being a novel idea to a major player in global finance has been marked by extreme volatility—a feature intrinsic to its encrypted, decentralized nature. Despite substantial fluctuations in price, Bitcoin remains attractive to many as a potential investment vehicle, distinct from traditional fiat currencies.
Bitcoin’s price trajectory, as observed historically, tends to oscillate significantly, with sharp peaks and troughs driven by various factors, including regulatory news, technological advancements, and speculative trading. January’s performance, though marked by a minor decrease, underscores this volatility and how external market factors might continue to exert their influence.
The Influence of Derivatives in Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics
The derivatives market for Bitcoin remains a significant component of its overall trading landscape, where futures and options allow traders to hedge risks or speculate on price movements without the need to hold the cryptocurrency directly. Deribit, a leading platform for crypto options trading, serves as a barometer of market sentiment where these $100,000 call options signal an intriguing narrative—especially given the current downtrend in spot prices.
These options represent a form of leveraged speculation, reflecting collective trader sentiment that Bitcoin’s price could rebound significantly in the coming months. The strong interest signals a belief in Bitcoin’s potential to overcome current price barriers and achieve substantial gains, despite recent underperformance. The interaction between option dynamics and market price trends continues to shape investor strategies, highlighting the multifaceted nature of Bitcoin trading.
Navigating the Future of Bitcoin
The mixed signals from the spot and derivatives markets suggest a complex outlook for Bitcoin as it advances through 2026. While historical patterns provide some insight, the inherent unpredictability of Bitcoin’s price movements means that both risks and opportunities lurk around the corner. The potential for a surge in value continues to inspire investor interest, buoyed by the ability of cryptocurrencies to adapt and innovate in an evolving financial landscape.
For investors and enthusiasts prepared to weather its tumultuous journey, Bitcoin presents a unique case study within the broader context of cryptocurrency innovation. Its ongoing volatility and the symbiotic relationship with derivatives markets underscore cryptocurrency’s burgeoning yet precarious position in the global economic arena.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many consecutive months has Bitcoin been declining?
Bitcoin is currently facing a fourth consecutive monthly decline, an occurrence last seen from 2018 to 2019, where it experienced a six-month streak of losses.
What is the current price of Bitcoin?
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $87,000.
What significance do derivatives markets have on Bitcoin’s price?
Derivatives markets, such as those hosting $100,000 Bitcoin call options, reflect trader speculation and sentiment about potential future price movements, playing a pivotal role in influencing market dynamics.
Why are traders optimistic despite recent price declines?
Traders exhibit optimism due to the high notional value of call options, suggesting expectations of a price rebound to $100,000 or more, despite the current spot market downturns.
How does Bitcoin’s current situation compare to past bear markets?
In previous bear markets, Bitcoin experienced rapid declines but rarely saw more than three consecutive months of downturns. Currently, it is on the cusp of a fourth such month, which is significant given historical trends.
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Sun Valley Releases 2025 Financial Report: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Reaches $670 Million, Accelerating Transformation to AI Infrastructure Platform
On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.
• Financial Performance:
Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.
• Mining Operations and Costs:
A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.
The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;
The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.
As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.
• Strategic Progress:
The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.
CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."
"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."
The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."
The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.
The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.
This includes:
· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion
· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million
· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million
· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million
The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.
The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.
The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.
Specifically, they include:
· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million
· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million
· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million
The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.
The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.
As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:
· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million
· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million
· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million
In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.
As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.
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