Bitcoin fell 23.8% in Q1 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018

According to The Block, btc-42">Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018. In comparison, Bitcoin dropped 50% in the first quarter of 2018. Coupled with a 23% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of about 41.6% over the past six months.

Analysts attribute this decline to multiple factors. Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue, stated that the downward trend in the first quarter was mainly driven by outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, along with persistently high inflation, a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, and an overall risk-averse sentiment in the market. In the first quarter, there was a net outflow of $496.5 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with $1.8 billion flowing out in the first two months, while $1.32 billion inflow in March partially offset the previous outflows.

Nevertheless, analysts believe that the long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains unshaken. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, stated, "There is almost no evidence to suggest a structural change in long-term confidence in Bitcoin; institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact, indicating that this decline is more cyclical than fundamental." She pointed out that a trend reversal in the second quarter depends on greater certainty in the macro environment, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East.

Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, stated, "To reverse the trend in the second quarter, we need ETF funds to flow back in, clear progress on crypto-friendly regulations in the U.S., and a shift towards looser monetary conditions."