Bitcoin Nears $100K on Trade Deal Hopes, But Technical Signals Flash Caution

Key PointsBitcoin briefly surged above $99,000 as traders anticipated a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement.Technical indicators show potential resistance near $99,900, with signs of weakening momentum.Analysts warn the rally may be driven by speculation, as the deal could be only a preliminary framework.Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged above $99,000 on Thursday, driven by optimism surrounding a possible trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom.The rally followed a social media post by President Donald Trump, who hinted at a “major trade deal” involving a respected foreign partner. Sources later identified the U.K. as the likely counterpart.The price movement brings Bitcoin closer to the key psychological milestone of $100,000, with the largest digital asset gaining as much as 2.9% on the day. Ether (ETH) also advanced sharply, rising over 8% to around $1,943..BTC 1D CHARTDespite the bullish sentiment, some analysts are signaling caution. The Wall Street Journal reported that the anticipated deal could be limited to a preliminary framework involving tariff adjustments, rather than a full trade agreement. This could temper some of the market enthusiasm if the announcement lacks meaningful policy changes.Technical Indicators Signal Potential ResistanceFrom a technical standpoint, Bitcoin faces several hurdles as it approaches the six-figure level.On-chain data shows that $99,900 may act as strong resistance, partly due to potential profit-taking by long-term holders and increased sell pressure from earlier buyers near these price levels.Other indicators also suggest momentum may be weakening:The Coinbase premium, often used as a measure of U.S.-based demand, has diverged bearishly from price since late April.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 14-hour chart has not confirmed Bitcoin’s latest price highs, showing a bearish divergence that hints at a possible slowdown in buying momentum.Bitcoin Coinbase premium. (CryptoQuant)In broader markets, U.S. stock futures rose modestly following a Federal Reserve policy update, which confirmed a pause in rate hikes at 4.25%–4.50%.Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged ongoing uncertainty but described the economy as “still in a solid position.”