Bitcoin Surges Past $106,000: Weekly MACD Forms Bullish Cross

Bitcoin's key technical indicator is showing the same pattern as it did in October 2024, when the cryptocurrency began its meteoric rise. The main digital currency has come close to the $106,000 mark, whetting the appetites of many traders.BTC is actively climbing to new heights as the market prepares for the release of important macroeconomic data from the United States. The question arises: Will Bitcoin finally overcome the resistance zone and set new all-time highs?Technical Indicators: Signal for a Decisive Upward MoveThe moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) indicator on the weekly chart has formed a bullish cross, a phenomenon that popular trader Moustache called “probably the most significant signal so far.” The last time such a pattern was observed was in October 2024, just before Bitcoin’s powerful rise.1-week chart of BTC/USD. Source: MoustacheAt the same time, the weekly candle closed at about $104,100 – just a couple of steps away from the critical level of $104,500, which analysts consider key to a new phase of price growth. It turns out the bulls stopped just a few hundred dollars short of a potential breakout.“Going forward, it'll be worth watching for Bitcoin to form Lower Lows on the price action and Higher Lows on the RSI for a Bullish Divergence to develop,” noted a Rekt Capital analyst.1-day chart of BTC/USD. Source: Rekt CapitalMacroeconomic Background: Tariffs and InflationThe new week will bring the publication of two key indicators of U.S. inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April. These data may have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.At the same time, markets are tense over U.S. trade policy. News of a trade deal with China has already caused sharp swings in the crypto market over the weekend.“We have yet to receive a direct statement from Trump regarding the U.S.-China trade deal,” noted analysts at The Kobeissi Letter. “This explains why markets are only up about 1.3% on the back of this otherwise incredibly positive news. Uncertainty is still present everywhere.”Intraday Volatility and Liquidity“The situation is about to get seriously volatile for BTC. Price spikes down, price spikes up,” warned trader James Wynn.According to CoinGlass, the $106,000 level represents a key resistance zone on the short-term horizon.Map of Bitcoin position liquidations on the Binance crypto exchange. Source: CoinglassA Rare Market Situation: Almost Everyone Is on the UpsideThe proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has reached more than 98%, a phenomenon rarely seen before, according to a new study.“When the supply of BTC in loss falls to the 0–2% range, it usually coincides with the late stages of a bull market,” stated CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi. “As shown in the chart, these moments cluster near tops, an area often characterized by overconfidence.”Bitcoin supply is in a loss range of 0-2%. Source: CryptoQuantLong-term holders who have held Bitcoin for at least six months may see a return to six-figure prices as an opportunity to reduce their Bitcoin positions. Beginners and speculators, on the other hand, may be planning to enter the market now.Lack of Excitement as a Bullish FactorInterestingly, despite the $104,000 price, the market is showing less “greed” than when Bitcoin was 10% cheaper. This could be an additional factor supporting BTC’s continued growth.The latest data from the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index shows that while “greed” characterizes the overall sentiment, the initial spike to $94,000 on April 23 yielded a higher reading.This is contrary to the usual reaction of retail investors, who usually show increased interest when prices rise. Analysis of “Bitcoin” query volumes on Google Trends also indicates a lack of significant interest from mainstream retail investors.“Google search queries for ‘Bitcoin’ are close to a five-year low. The price is above 100k,” noted Vijay Selvam, author of “The Principles of Bitcoin.” “Retail investors have not even begun to really come back since 2020.”With current technical cues persisting and a relatively “cool” market sentiment, Bitcoin has a rare opportunity for sustained upside without the typical signs of overheating. The weekly MACD and the approach to the key $104,500 resistance level form an intriguing picture for the major cryptocurrency.Kraken: Best crypto exchange for security & reliabilityBuy, sell, and trade 400+ cryptocurrencies with industry-leading securitySpot, Futures & Margin trading – leverage up to 5x for advanced tradersEarn rewards with staking on top cryptocurrencies24/7 customer support and high liquidity for fast tradesRegulated in the US with strong compliance and security measures13+ million users worldwideGet Started on Kraken