Ethereum may face a new round of downward risk, analysts warn that it could drop to $1200

Crypto analyst Leshka.eth expressed the view that the recent price trend of Ethereum is showing a technical pattern similar to historical "bull market traps," with a risk of further decline in the short term, potentially targeting $1200, representing a potential drop of about 40% from current levels.

The technical indicators show that the Supertrend indicator on the ETH daily chart has failed to sustain its previous two "bullish" signals, which subsequently triggered significant pullbacks of 45% and 48%. A similar structure is now appearing again at the critical level of about $1990; if it breaks below this level, it could trigger a new round of accelerated decline.

The fundamentals and capital flows are also weak. On a macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly shifted further out; in terms of capital flows, there has been a net outflow of about $300 million from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recently, and on-chain demand has dropped to a 16-month low.

On-chain data shows that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking, and there are also no significant signs of accumulation from "whale" and "shark" addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges, respectively, indicating an overall state of distribution and wait-and-see. In the absence of strong buying support, if key support levels are breached, the ETH price may face further downward pressure.