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Fed Decision Preview: ADP Data Could Shake Fed's December Rate Cut Confidence
BlockBeats News, October 29th, Market analyst Giuseppe stated that yesterday the US automatic data processing company ADP released the four-week US employment data ending on October 11, 2025, with an average weekly addition of 14,250 employment positions, meaning an increase of about 57,000 positions in four weeks. The Dallas Fed estimated in early October that the current breakeven point is around a monthly increase of 30,000 jobs, while 57,000 is well above this level. Due to the lack of government data, the ADP data shows a strong rebound signal, which may lead Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to be more cautious when hinting at a rate cut in December. If so, this will be seen as a hawkish surprise and will significantly impact the market. In addition, the most dovish member of the Fed, Waller (one of the candidates for Fed Chair), has also stated that ADP data is one of the reasons he supports a rate cut. He recently said, "I still believe we need to cut rates, but we need to be cautious about it." (FXStreet)
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