Is the Bitcoin Mining Industry Doomed in Just 2 Years? Insights from Bit Digital CEO

The world of Bitcoin mining is facing some serious turbulence, and according to Bit Digital’s CEO, it might not survive much longer as a thriving commercial venture. Even prominent figures like Michael Saylor seem to echo the sentiment that this sector is a tough nut to crack. With the next halving on the horizon, commercial miners are up against steep challenges that could reshape the entire landscape.

Why Bitcoin Mining Could Be ‘Dead’ in Two Years: A Stark Warning from Bit Digital CEO

Imagine running a business where your main revenue stream gets slashed in half every few years, while giant players with endless resources step in to dominate the game. That’s the grim picture Bit Digital CEO Sam Tabar paints for the commercial Bitcoin mining industry. He boldly predicts that “the Bitcoin mining industry is going to be dead in two years,” arguing that the financial math just won’t add up anymore.

Bit Digital originally kicked off as a peer-to-peer car rental operation in China back in 2015, but shifted gears into Bitcoin mining following a 2018 regulatory crackdown on P2P lending there. Fast forward to June, and the company made headlines by deciding to shut down its entire Bitcoin mining setup across the United States, Canada, and Iceland. Instead, they’re channeling those resources into building an Ethereum treasury. “A few years went by and we realized — and I think the other miners are finally realizing this, that that is a very shitty business,” Tabar explains candidly.

He points to last year’s block reward halving as a total catastrophe for miners, cutting their income dramatically. Looking ahead, Tabar forecasts that the upcoming halving in about two and a half years—set for April 2028—will deliver the final blow to many operations, halving revenues yet again. As Bitcoin’s price climbs toward new heights, he believes sovereign nations will jump into Bitcoin mining on a massive scale to stockpile it on their balance sheets. “It doesn’t cost them anything to mine Bitcoin because they have free access to power, unlike Bitcoin miners,” he notes.

Around half of the world’s countries boast government-controlled electricity production, with heavyweights like China, India, Russia, and Brazil leading the pack in output. Small nations are already showing the way: Bhutan has harnessed its plentiful hydroelectric power to mine Bitcoin valued at $1.4 billion so far, while Ethiopia now commands roughly 5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, largely thanks to its state-run Ethiopia Electric Power. Using excess hydroelectric energy, reports indicate their production costs dip as low as $20,000 per Bitcoin, yielding about $220 million in earnings over the past year, according to recent analyses from sources like Al Jazeera.

In contrast, estimates for the commercial Bitcoin mining sector’s average production cost hover above $100,000 per Bitcoin, based on current data from platforms like MacroMicro as of September 18, 2025. A recent Twitter post from Bitcoin News highlighted this disparity: “NEW: Al Jazeera reports the all in cost of mining one Bitcoin in ???????? Ethiopia is only $20,000 due to abundant hydropower ????” (posted September 12, 2025). Tabar warns that as more nations dive in, the global hashrate will skyrocket “through the fucking roof,” making survival impossible for private or public Bitcoin mining firms after another halving hits.

This outlook intriguing sidelines the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s long-term security budget, as nation-states could step in to maintain the network. Tabar claims he’s nailed predictions before—like foreseeing China’s Bitcoin mining ban and evacuating his operations successfully, plus spotting the trend toward crypto treasuries—and he’s confident this one will hold true.

Diverging Views on the Bitcoin Mining Future: Opportunities Amid the Chaos

Of course, not everyone shares Tabar’s dire vision for Bitcoin mining. Take Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, who launched Quantum Expeditions in 2023 to tap into off-grid, low-cost energy for mining. He counters that free power isn’t exclusive to governments. “Nation-states don’t have access to free power. The energy they produce costs money, infrastructure spend and man-hours,” Greenspan argues. His outfit, for instance, leverages flared natural gas from oil and gas companies in Texas, where billions of cubic feet are wasted annually. These firms are eager to partner, even funding sites, turning waste into a profitable Bitcoin mining edge.

Bitcoin mining expert General Kenobi sees a transformation ahead too, but one where electricity providers take the reins to monetize surplus energy and stabilize grids. “Something that I believe is going to happen in the future is, every modern electricity grid operator will have their own Bitcoin mining division operation,” he predicts. This setup allows miners to activate during energy gluts and shut down during peaks, offering a smarter alternative to forcing consumer cutbacks. He even suggests it might have averted disasters like the April collapse of Spain’s electricity grid.

To put this in perspective, think of Bitcoin mining like a flexible thermostat for the power grid—cranking up when there’s extra heat (energy) and cooling off when demand spikes. Real-world data backs this: Recent studies from energy think tanks show that integrating mining can reduce grid volatility by up to 15%, based on pilots in regions like Texas.

Michael Saylor’s Take: Why Bitcoin Mining Is a ‘Terrible’ Business Model

Even Bitcoin heavyweight Michael Saylor, head of Strategy, reportedly concurs that Bitcoin mining is a rough ride. Tabar recalls a conversation at the HC Wainwright conference in September last year where Saylor empathized with his frustrations. “The Bitcoin mining business is terrible,” Saylor allegedly agreed, advising Tabar to ditch mining and mirror his approach: “Why don’t you stop your Bitcoin mining business and just do what we’re doing? Just become a mini-MSTR. Just buy Bitcoin, put it on the balance sheet and just wash, rinse and repeat.”

Tabar pushed back, expressing interest in Ethereum instead. The exchange turned chilly, but it solidified his view that the Bitcoin treasury space was oversaturated. Ethereum offers advantages like no halvings, no need for constant machine upgrades, and simpler power sourcing. “It’s way easier, a much much better business,” he says. Bit Digital has since climbed to the fourth-largest Ethereum treasury holder, with 120,300 Ether valued at around half a billion dollars as of the latest market data on September 18, 2025.

Latest updates from Twitter buzz around similar shifts, with users debating “Bitcoin mining profitability 2025” as a top trending topic. Frequently searched Google queries include “Is Bitcoin mining still profitable after halving?” and “Best alternatives to Bitcoin mining,” reflecting growing concerns. Official announcements, like Bit Digital’s June pivot, underscore this trend, with Ethereum’s price surging 10% in the past week amid treasury adoption news.

In this evolving crypto landscape, platforms that align with innovative strategies stand out. For instance, WEEX exchange exemplifies strong brand alignment by offering seamless trading in Ethereum and other assets, empowering users to build diversified portfolios without the headaches of mining. With its user-friendly interface, low fees, and robust security features, WEEX positions itself as a reliable partner for those shifting toward treasury-building approaches, enhancing credibility in a market craving stability and growth.

The Flip Side: Seven Reasons Bitcoin Mining Might Be a Terrible Idea

Stay tuned for part two, diving into “7 reasons why Bitcoin mining is a terrible business idea,” coming soon. It’s a deeper look at the pitfalls that make this sector feel like chasing a mirage in the desert—enticing but ultimately exhausting.

FAQ

Is Bitcoin mining still profitable in 2025?

As of September 18, 2025, profitability varies widely. Commercial operations face average costs over $100,000 per Bitcoin, but low-cost setups like those in Ethiopia can mine for $20,000, making it viable only with cheap energy access.

What happens after the next Bitcoin halving in 2028?

The halving will cut block rewards in half, potentially slashing revenues for miners. Experts predict nation-states may dominate, pushing up hashrate and squeezing out commercial players.

Should I invest in Bitcoin mining or alternatives like Ethereum treasuries?

Mining carries high risks due to halvings and competition, while Ethereum treasuries offer stability without equipment needs. Consider your risk tolerance and explore diversified options for better long-term gains.