Morning Report | Kraken secretly submitted for a U.S. IPO; eToro acquires crypto wallet provider Zengo; Bitmine announces Q1 financial report
整理:ChainCatcher
Important News:
- Ether.fi commits $3 billion in Ethereum to ETHGas as validator liquidity over three years
- Kraken secretly submits US IPO, valuation drops to $13.3 billion
- Bitmine releases quarterly report: net loss exceeds $3.8 billion, mainly due to ETH unrealized losses
- Data: South Korea accounts for 30% of global crypto trading volume, dominates altcoins but market depth is less than Japan
- CLARITY Act not included in the US Senate agenda for next week, bill faces another setback
- Tokenization startup Brix completes $5.5 million funding, with participation from Circle Ventures and others
- eToro acquires self-custody crypto wallet provider Zengo
What important events happened in the past 24 hours?
Tokenization startup Brix completes $5.5 million funding, with participation from Circle Ventures and others
According to ChainCatcher, Brix, a startup focused on tokenizing emerging market assets, announced the completion of $5.5 million in funding, with investments from Yapi Kredi's venture capital arm, FRWRD, Is Asset Management, and crypto investment firms Circle Ventures, ConsenSys, and Borderless Capital.
Brix plans to launch on the MegaETH network, aiming to bring trading strategies traditionally dominated by large financial institutions onto the blockchain.
CryptoQuant: As BTC breaks $75,000, short-term holders sell over 65,000 coins in 24 hours
According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that when Bitcoin tested the $75,000 mark yesterday, short-term holders (STHs) significantly increased BTC transfers to exchanges, sending over 65,000 BTC in 24 hours. Profit-taking dominated, with about 61,000 BTC sold at a profit.
Darkfost pointed out that any price increase is currently seen as an exit opportunity, regardless of profitability. Short-term holders remain highly sensitive and quick to react to price fluctuations.
CLARITY Act not included in the US Senate agenda for next week, bill faces another setback
According to ChainCatcher, the Senate Banking Committee's official website shows that next week's agenda (April 21) only includes one nomination hearing and does not schedule the expected discussions/modifications for digital assets or the CLARITY Act.
Additionally, Politico reported that Senator Thom Tillis will release the final draft this week, which is the last piece needed before the committee holds a marking meeting. The bill still needs to align with the Senate Agriculture Committee, pass the Senate's 60-vote threshold in a full vote (requiring Democratic support), and then coordinate with the House of Representatives.
Analysts have pointed out that if a marking meeting is not scheduled between April 20 and 25, midterm election politics could completely stifle the bill, as bipartisan cooperation will vanish.
Data: South Korea accounts for 30% of global crypto trading volume, dominates altcoins but market depth is less than Japan
According to ChainCatcher, crypto data firm Kaiko (@KaikoData) monitors that South Korea accounts for 30% of global cryptocurrency trading volume, with altcoin trading making up as much as 85%, while Bitcoin only accounts for 9% and Ethereum for 6%, with a weekly average trading volume of about $26 billion.
In contrast, Japan's yen-denominated trading averages only between $2 billion and $3 billion per month, distributed across four exchanges, which is far less than South Korea, but its Bitcoin market depth is 3 to 5 times that of South Korea, indicating better liquidity quality in the Japanese market.
eToro acquires self-custody crypto wallet provider Zengo
According to ChainCatcher, the Wall Street Journal reported that trading and investment platform eToro announced the acquisition of self-custody crypto wallet provider Zengo, with the specific acquisition amount undisclosed.
The acquisition aims to combine eToro's global multi-asset platform and distribution channels with Zengo's non-custodial wallet technology, supporting Zengo's next phase of growth while expanding eToro's digital asset capabilities.
Bitcoin proposal BIP-361 suggests freezing quantum-vulnerable addresses, sparking community controversy
According to ChainCatcher, market news reports that Cypherpunk Jameson Lopp and several experts in Bitcoin quantum security proposed Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, suggesting freezing quantum-vulnerable addresses, including those of Satoshi Nakamoto, to prevent future quantum computers from stealing about 1.7 million Bitcoins.
The proposal advances in three phases: first, prohibiting transfers to old-style addresses; second, invalidating old-style signatures and freezing untransferred assets after five years; and finally, allowing some users to recover frozen funds through zero-knowledge proof mechanisms. The proposal aims to promote a network-wide migration to quantum-resistant addresses but has faced opposition from some community members, who argue it contradicts Bitcoin's decentralization principle and has a predatory nature.
Bitmine releases quarterly report: net loss exceeds $3.8 billion, mainly due to ETH unrealized losses
According to ChainCatcher, The Block reported that Ethereum asset management company Bitmine reported a net loss of $3.8 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2026, primarily driven by an unrealized loss of $3.78 billion in its digital assets. As of April 12, Bitmine held 4.87 million Ethereum, accounting for about 4.04% of the global Ethereum supply, with an average purchase price of $2,206 per coin, aiming to control 5% of the global Ethereum supply.
The company's report showed that the quarterly revenue was $11.04 million, of which about $10 million came from Ethereum staking rewards. Bitmine has staked 3.33 million Ethereum, accounting for 68% of its total holdings, with an expected annual income of up to $212 million. Additionally, the company holds $719 million in cash, 198 Bitcoins, and investments in Beast Industries and Eightco Holdings.
Tom Lee: The net effect of war on the US economy is positive, and the market has begun to price in favorable outcomes
According to ChainCatcher, Tom Lee, chairman of Ethereum treasury company BitMine, stated in an interview with CNBC, "The stock market remains resilient because, even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected." He noted that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and may rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which has a significant stimulating effect on the economy; meanwhile, a $20 increase in oil prices adds only about $12 billion in burden to households per month, "Overall, war is actually helping corporate profits right now."
Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, "Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed in May 1942, just five months after the US entered the war, and at that time, no American troops had even set foot on European or Pacific battlefields." He believes, "The market is very good at pricing in outcomes ahead of time; the current rise in the stock market means the market is pricing in favorable outcomes, although I can't clearly articulate the specific reasons, but that is the signal conveyed by market performance."
Regarding the three major variables in the current market—war in Iran, corporate earnings, and interest rates—Tom Lee stated, "Among the three, only war can create tail events in both directions, so it is the variable to watch closely." In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy sector and points out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.4-Cyber model, opens low refusal capability for security personnel
According to ChainCatcher, OpenAI announced the launch of the GPT-5.4-Cyber model, which is fine-tuned for cybersecurity scenarios based on GPT-5.4, reducing refusal limits for security-related requests under specific conditions to support specialized operations such as binary reverse engineering.
The model is only available to vetted security vendors, corporate security teams, and researchers through the "Trusted Access for Cybersecurity" (TAC) program. OpenAI stated that the related tiered mechanism will limit the model's usage scope and impose additional constraints on access in low-visibility scenarios.
Crypto.com partners with High Roller to enter the prediction market
According to ChainCatcher, crypto exchange Crypto.com has signed a final agreement with High Roller Technologies to enter the prediction market by integrating its prediction market business.
Related event contracts will be offered through the CDNA exchange, which is registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), targeting US users and competing with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kraken secretly submits US IPO, valuation drops to $13.3 billion
According to ChainCatcher, Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed that the cryptocurrency exchange has secretly submitted an initial public offering (IPO) application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This IPO application was officially advanced after last year's initial disclosure plans.
Data shows that Kraken's latest valuation is approximately $13.3 billion, a significant drop from $20 billion in 2025. Previously, Kraken had paused its IPO plans due to a downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Deutsche Börse Group has committed to investing $200 million in exchange for a 1.5% fully diluted ownership stake in Kraken.
Farcaster clarifies it will not issue tokens, related "token discussions" actually pertain to the fork project Hypersnap
According to ChainCatcher, Farcaster stated, "We will not issue tokens. The 'token discussions' circulating in the market are actually related to Hypersnap, which is a fork project of the Farcaster protocol. The Hypersnap team refers to its token as the 'Farcaster token' in discussions, which has led to confusion among users unfamiliar with the technical details."
It is important to clarify that this is not a comment on the fork project itself. We just want to avoid this speculation from continuing to create unnecessary noise, such as bot accounts, airdrop users, and scam accounts, which can affect the overall network experience. It should be made clear that there is no so-called Farcaster protocol token airdrop."
Ether.fi commits $3 billion in Ethereum to ETHGas as validator liquidity over three years
According to ChainCatcher, Ethereum liquid restaking protocol Ether.fi announced that it will provide a total value of $3 billion in Ethereum to the ETHGas market as "validator liquidity" over the next three years, funded by its management of 2.8 million staked Ethereum.
ETHGas is a futures market for Ethereum block space, allowing for the advance purchase of block space to ensure transaction execution. This initiative aims to enhance validator earnings by helping them capture more maximum extractable value (MEV) through the sale of block space commitments, resulting in higher and more predictable returns. ETHGas has received investments from institutions such as Polychain Capital and launched the governance token GWEI, which currently has a market cap of about $120 million.
Ether.fi's native token ETHFI has a market cap of about $332 million. This move will provide developers and enterprises with more predictable transaction costs and execution times, promoting Ethereum's development as a global institutional capital settlement layer.
The Central Bank of Russia plans to require citizens to declare overseas crypto asset holdings
According to ChainCatcher, the Central Bank of Russia stated that it plans to require its citizens to declare their holdings of crypto assets overseas after a new round of crypto regulatory rules come into effect.
Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, pointed out that the new regulations will strengthen KYC requirements for exchanges to enhance transaction transparency. He also emphasized that regulation does not prohibit individuals or institutions from holding crypto assets in overseas wallets, but they must declare them to the Federal Tax Service. This measure is expected to come into effect in July along with the relevant regulatory framework.
The Central Bank Shaoguan Branch issues virtual currency risk warning and announces four typical cases
According to ChainCatcher, the People's Bank of China Shaoguan Branch, in conjunction with the Shaoguan Municipal Government Office, issued a virtual currency risk warning ahead of the "4.15" National Security Education Day and announced four typical cases: "high salary for U-part-time" money laundering, "capital preservation high interest speculation" illegal fundraising, "RWA digital cultural tourism fund" pyramid scheme, and offline "currency exchange" disguised foreign exchange trading.
Regulators clarified that virtual currency exchange, trading, and RWA tokenization activities are illegal financial behaviors. Projects claiming "high returns, low risk, guaranteed profits" are mostly scams. The public should abandon fantasies of getting rich quickly, stay away from virtual currency-related investments, choose legal financial channels, and report any anomalies promptly to reduce losses.
Meme Popularity Rankings
According to the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN market data, as of April 16, 09:00,
The top five popular ETH tokens in the past 24 hours are: HEX, SHIB, LINK, PEPE, UNI
The top five popular Solana tokens in the past 24 hours are: swarms, Punch, neet, Buttcoin, LOL
The top five popular Base tokens in the past 24 hours are: SKITTEN, PEPE, BASED, B3, SKYA
What are some interesting articles worth reading in the past 24 hours?
YouTube will become the next new bank
Every successful new bank (neobank) follows the same starting path: identifying areas where traditional banks charge excessively or provide poor service, using this as an entry point to penetrate broader banking operations.
SoFi found that FICO credit scores are a poor pricing method for student debt for borrowers with growth potential. Instead, they underwrite based on income trajectories and disposable cash flow, and the accumulated data gradually becomes a real moat. While most banks charge a 3% fee for every overseas card swipe, Monzo, Revolut, and Starling started by offering zero foreign exchange fees. In Brazil, where traditional banks charge punitive rates and millions are excluded from the formal financial system, Nubank won the market with no annual fee credit cards.
Breaking down RAVE's manipulation techniques
RAVE extreme manipulation warning: 96% of chips are locked by whales, contract positions exceed spot, forming an epic short squeeze deadlock; please be highly vigilant of OKX's chain liquidation and the risk of manipulation at any time.
Crypto VCs collectively raise their profile, is the market starting to rebound?
After a long silence, crypto VCs have recently become a hot topic of discussion, with many industry insiders posting and exchanging ideas on the X platform, with individual posts reaching over 1.41 million views.
The earliest discussion came from Tom Dunleavy, investment director at Varys Capital, who stated in a post on April 11 that the shift in the cryptocurrency financing landscape is simply insane.
"Crypto VCs used to have to constantly promote their investment thesis through articles, podcasts, Spaces, etc., and take 10 deal flow calls a week to secure good projects... now, it’s simply enough to have capital to write checks." Tom Dunleavy stated, "Currently, there are fewer than 20 institutions that are actually writing checks for pre-seed/seed rounds. VCs can basically pick any project they want and have more time for due diligence."
A wave of reactions followed, and the precise and dramatic description quickly resonated with many crypto VC investors, with nearly half of the crypto VC circle commenting on this tweet.
Annual loss of $5 billion, valuation of $2 trillion, why does SpaceX excite crypto players so much?
According to public reports, SpaceX's revenue in 2025 is $18.5 billion, with a net loss of nearly $5 billion.
In the same year, the company submitted an IPO application to the SEC, with a target valuation raised from $1.25 trillion to $2 trillion within months, aiming for the largest IPO in history.
Meanwhile, it holds 8,285 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, valued at about $600 million, making it the fourth-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally.
As one of the hottest tech companies currently, SpaceX's every move has also attracted the attention of crypto enthusiasts.
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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45
XRP is up 6.7% this week, but exchange reserves remain high. Is a volatility spike imminent? We analyze price trend, ETF inflows, whale activity, and regulatory catalysts to answer: will XRP go up, why is XRP dropping, and is XRP a good investment right now?
TL; DR
What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global SettlementBefore analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.
Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .
XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.
According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.
Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.
Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.
However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.
So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .
XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two MarketsThe current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.
Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):
Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .
The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.
Institutional Dynamics (ETF):
While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.
US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are PositiveIt seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.
Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY ActFundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.
The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.
Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.
The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.
FAQQ: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?
A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.
Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?
A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.
Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?
A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.
Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?
A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.
Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?
A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.
Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.
About WEEXFounded in 2018, WEEX has developed into a global crypto exchange with over 6.2 million users across more than 150 countries. The platform emphasizes security, liquidity, and usability, providing over 1,200 spot trading pairs and offering up to 400x leverage in crypto futures trading. In addition to the traditional spot and derivatives markets, WEEX is expanding rapidly in the AI era — delivering real-time AI news, empowering users with AI trading tools, and exploring innovative trade-to-earn models that make intelligent trading more accessible to everyone. Its 1,000 BTC Protection Fund further strengthens asset safety and transparency, while features such as copy trading and advanced trading tools allow users to follow professional traders and experience a more efficient, intelligent trading journey.
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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45
XRP is up 6.7% this week, but exchange reserves remain high. Is a volatility spike imminent? We analyze price trend, ETF inflows, whale activity, and regulatory catalysts to answer: will XRP go up, why is XRP dropping, and is XRP a good investment right now?
TL; DR
What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global SettlementBefore analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.
Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .
XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.
According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.
Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.
Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.
However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.
So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .
XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two MarketsThe current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.
Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):
Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .
The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.
Institutional Dynamics (ETF):
While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.
US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are PositiveIt seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.
Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY ActFundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.
The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.
Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.
The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.
FAQQ: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?
A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.
Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?
A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.
Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?
A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.
Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?
A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.
Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?
A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.
Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.
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