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Predicted market trading volume surges due to the US-Iran conflict, US senators propose legislation to ban betting on wars
According to Cointelegraph, data shows that for the week ending March 9, Polymarket and Kalshi set all-time highs in nominal trading volume, reaching $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively. Dune data indicates that the continued growth in trading activity has driven the total nominal trading volume of all prediction markets to $14.5 billion, with the number of unique users reaching 2.8 million.
Meanwhile, U.S. Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the "DEATH BETS Act," which aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to explicitly prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and personal death. Previously, six Polymarket traders faced insider trading allegations after profiting $1 million from accurately betting on a U.S. attack on Iran.
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