QCP Capital: Market in Consolidation Phase Awaiting This Thursday's CPI Data Release, Low Likelihood of Further Escalation in US Trade Friction
BlockBeats News, September 8th, QCP Capital released its latest report stating that after last Friday's non-farm payroll data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, stock futures continued to rise. This data confirmed the soft job market trend since June — when the record of 53 consecutive months of job growth was broken. With the market betting on a further 72 basis point rate cut this year, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell to a new annual low.
However, the risk appetite brought by the Fed's rate cut expectations did not spread to the cryptocurrency sector. Despite the stock market rebound and gold hitting new highs, cryptocurrencies showed independent price action, consolidating sideways over the past week.
The market may interpret this sideways movement as a bearish signal: the risk reversal indicator shows a surge in demand for put options, especially for September expiry contracts. However, some believe that this actually demonstrates the resilience of crypto assets — even though the Strategy was removed from the S&P 500 Index, Bitcoin still held above the $110,000 mark; despite five consecutive days of outflows in spot ETFs, Ethereum remained above $4,250.
QCP Capital believes that this directional ambiguity further reflects the market's cautious attitude ahead of Thursday's U.S. inflation data release. Short-term implied volatility remains high, a situation that may persist after the CPI data is published. If the inflation data exceeds the expected value of 0.3%, it may complicate the Fed's rate cut path. Although the probability is low, considering the impact of tariffs, the market is not entirely unprepared for this.
Even if the tariff policy causes a temporary spike in data, judging by the current economic situation, the likelihood of the Trump administration further escalating trade tensions is low. Therefore, unless this week's data triggers an overreaction, the crypto market will still receive solid support in the absence of significant catalysts.
You may also like

Make Probability an Asset: A Forward-Looking Perspective on Predictive Market Agents

Consumer application issues

Arthur Hayes: The flames of war in the Middle East rise, Bitcoin is bullish

Legendary investor Naval: In the AI era, traditional software engineers have no value?

More absurd than knowing about the war in advance is knowing in advance about the assassination of Soleimani

Key Market Insights on March 2nd, how much did you miss?

How to systematically track high-performing addresses on Polymarket?

From Stanford Lab to Silicon Valley Streets: How OpenMind is Solving the "Last Mile" Problem of the Machine Economy?

PlanX: Reconstructing On-Chain Execution with AI, Moving Towards a New Paradigm

US Judge Allows Binance Unregistered Token Lawsuit to Advance
Key Takeaways: A federal judge in Manhattan dismissed Binance’s petition to resolve a securities lawsuit through private arbitration,…

Crypto VC Paradigm Plans $1.5 Billion Expansion into AI and Robotics
Key Takeaways: Paradigm is setting up a new $1.5 billion fund to explore AI, robotics, and other emerging…

Ethereum Smart Accounts Set to Launch Within a Year, According to Vitalik Buterin
Key Takeaways: Ethereum’s “account abstraction” or smart accounts might be introduced in the coming year through the Hegota…

Bitcoin Recovers After Iran Conflict Shocks Market, Reverses $5K Fall in Just 24 Hours
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin dropped to approximately $63,000 amid tensions but rebounded to $68,200 within a day. Volatility led…

Former Mt. Gox CEO Suggests Hardfork to Retrieve $5.2 Billion in Bitcoin
Key Takeaways: Mark Karpelès, former CEO of Mt. Gox, proposes a Bitcoin network hard fork to access nearly…

South Korea National Tax Service’s Mistake Resulted in $4.8 Million Crypto Loss
Key Takeaways South Korea’s National Tax Service inadvertently exposed private keys, resulting in a $4.8 million crypto loss.…

Morgan Stanley Seeks National Trust Charter for Cryptocurrency Custody
Key Takeaways: Morgan Stanley has initiated a significant step toward digital asset management by applying for a national…

Solana Price Outlook: Major ETF Inflows Hint at Institutional Moves
Key Takeaways: Solana has experienced substantial ETF inflows, prompting speculation about institutional buy-in. On February 25, Solana recorded…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Wikipedia Founder Warns BTC Could Plunge Below $10K — Should Investors Worry?
Key Takeaways Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales warns Bitcoin might decline to below $10,000, prompting a bearish outlook. Wales…