S&P 500 inclusion could drive $9B–$16B inflows into Coinbase: Bernstein

The inclusion, effective before trading begins on May 19, will see the crypto major replacing Discover Financial Services in the index. Analysts at Bernstein estimate the move could trigger roughly $9 billion in inflows from passive investment vehicles linked to the S&P 500. At a market capitalization of approximately $52 billion, Coinbase would represent around 0.1% of the S&P 500 Coinbase is set to become the first pure-play cryptocurrency firm to be included in the S&P 500 index. The inclusion, effective before trading begins on May 19, follows the pending completion of Discover Financial Services’ acquisition by Capital One. Wall Street brokerage Bernstein estimates that Coinbase could see approximately $16 billion in buying pressure as a result of its inclusion in the S&P 500. Of this, around $9 billion is expected to come from passive index funds that track the benchmark, while an additional $7 billion could stem from active fund allocations responding to the index change. “We estimate $9 billion potential buying into Coinbase driven by passive S&P 500-linked ETFs and non-ETFs,” said Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani in a note to clients on Tuesday. For S&P-benchmarked active funds, a 0.1% allocation could translate into another $7 billion in potential buying, he added. At a market capitalization of approximately $52 billion, Coinbase would represent around 0.1% of the S&P 500 and about 0.7% of the index’s financial sector weighting. The S&P 500 currently has a total market value of about $52 trillion. The long road to mainstream Coinbase’s path to the index follows what Bernstein described as a dramatic turnaround, after the company had previously been involved in litigation with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Coinbase debuted on the Nasdaq via a direct listing in April 2021 and now holds about 66% share of the US crypto exchange market, with more than $400 billion in assets and around 10 million active users. As the saying goes... “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then they add you to the S&P 500.” ...or something like that. — Coinbase ️ (@coinbase) May 12, 2025 “This is a big deal,” said Coinbase President and COO Emilie Choi. “The S&P 500 is arguably the most tracked and influential index in the world, is a 401(k) cornerstone, and a magnet for institutional capital.” CEO Brian Armstrong added, “Crypto is about to be in everyone’s 401k,” and expressed hope that entry into a COIN50 index might eventually carry similar weight. Market reaction to Coinbase’s inclusion Coinbase shares rose about 16% in the early hours of trading on Thursday following the announcement and were last seen trading at $241.60. However, the stock remains down about 5% year-to-date. The listing comes shortly after Coinbase announced a $2.9 billion deal to acquire Deribit, a crypto derivatives exchange. The acquisition includes $700 million in cash and 11 million Coinbase Class A shares. Source: https://coinjournal.net/news/sp-500-inclusion-could-drive-9b-16b-inflows-into-coinbase-bernstein/