The top player in the Perpetual DEX space, how do you view the future trend of HYPE?

By: blockbeats|2025/11/21 14:00:05

Original Article Title: Why Hyperliquid Can Reach $250 in 2026

Original Article Author: DeFi Warhol

Original Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Currently, there are many decentralized perpetual contract trading platforms in the market, but only one automatically uses almost all of its revenue to buy back its own token on the public market.

This is my entire argument about Hyperliquid summed up in one sentence:

If you believe that the trading volume of a perpetual DEX will continue to grow, then HYPE is one of the purest ways to capitalize on this trend with the strongest leverage effect.

Below is my personal take on how Hyperliquid operates and how the current token design could evolve in the future.

Abstract

• Hyperliquid's daily trading volume has reached billions of dollars, with an annualized revenue of over 1.3 billion dollars.

• 97% of all fees are routed to an automated "rescue fund," which buys back HYPE on the open market.

• The fund has spent over 600 million dollars to repurchase HYPE and also holds a significant amount of tokens.

• The risk and reward lie in whether Hyperliquid can sustainably capture trading volume and maintain the 97% buyback policy.

• Based on simple trading volume and market share assumptions, I have derived rough price scenarios: Bear Market: $45–50 Baseline: $80–90 Bull Market: $160–180

Hyperliquid Status

To better understand the direction of Hyperliquid's development, we need to know its current status.

Here are some quick data overviews:

• Perpetual contract trading volume: Approximately $80 billion + per day

• Annualized revenue: Approximately $12 – 13 billion

• HYPE Market Cap: Approximately $10 billion

• Fully Diluted Valuation of HYPE: Approximately $380 Billion

• Staked HYPE: Approximately 42%

• Treasury Balance: 35 Million HYPE

Core Mechanism: 97% of Fees Used for Buyback

This is the most critical part of the bullish thesis.

Hyperliquid utilizes protocol transaction fees to fund HYPE token buybacks.

Traders pay perpetual contract and spot trading fees.

These fees are routed to the treasury.

The treasury is set to continuously use approximately 97% of all exchange fees to buy back HYPE tokens on the open market.

Increased trading volume → Increased fees → Increased buybacks

In other words, nearly every dollar earned by the exchange is turned into a mechanical buying pressure for HYPE.

Additionally:

On HyperEVM, gas fees are paid in HYPE.

The base fee follows an EIP-1559-style mechanism, so a portion of HYPE is burned, adding another deflationary path.

So:

• 97% of transaction fees → HYPE buyback

• HyperEVM gas fees → HYPE

• Staked Burn → HYPE Sink

-- Price

HyperEVM

Hyperliquid was originally a custom perpetual contract protocol. Now there is HyperEVM, which is an EVM layer where:

• Users pay gas fees in HYPE

• Base fees are burned

• On-chain applications (perpetual contract front end, HIP-3 market, other protocols) add additional demand for block space and HYPE.

I view HyperEVM as a second engine:

• Engine 1: Perpetual Contract Trading Volume → Fee → 97% Buyback.

• Engine 2: HyperEVM Activity → HYPE Gas Fee → Burn + Additional Fee.

Scenario Setting

Current Situation:

• Perpetual DEX Total Trading Volume: Approximately $380 billion per day

• Hyperliquid Trading Volume: Approximately $80 billion per day (about 20–22% share)

• Fee Rate: Approximately 0.04% (assuming most traders are takers)

• Annual Fee: $13 billion

• 97% Used for Buyback: Approximately $12-12.5 billion per year

• Market Cap: $100 billion

• So Market Cap / Buyback Ratio is approximately 8.5x

Then I assume:

• Market continues to value HYPE at roughly the same buyback multiple (approximately 8.5x)

• Perpetual DEX trading volume grows

• Hyperliquid maintains or gains market share

Scenario 1: Bear Market Scenario

Bear Market Scenario: Perpetual DEX traffic grows, Hyperliquid only maintains its share, under this framework, the final price of HYPE is approximately between $40 to $50.

Assumptions:

• Perpetual DEX Total Trading Volume: 1.5x of today

• Hyperliquid Share: Flat

Results:

• Annual Buyback: Approximately $18 billion

• Using 8.5x Market Cap / Buyback Ratio → Implied Market Cap ≈ $154 billion

• Circulating HYPE around 337 million → Implied Price ≈ $45–50

Scenario 2: Base Case Scenario

Baseline: On-chain perpetual contract trading volume doubles, Hyperliquid share increases, HYPE price ranges between $80 to $90.

Assumptions:

• Perpetual DEX total trading volume: Doubled from today

• Hyperliquid share: Approximately 30%

Results:

• Annualized Buyback: Approximately $33.4 billion

• At 8.5x → Implied Market Cap ≈ $284 billion

• Circulating HYPE around 337 million → Implied Price ≈ $80–90

Scenario 3: Bull Market Scenario

Bull Market Scenario: On-chain perpetual contract trading volume grows by 3x, Hyperliquid becomes the dominant platform, and under the same 8.5x multiplier, HYPE price reaches the range of $160–180 and above.

Assumptions:

• Perpetual DEX total trading volume: Increased by 3x from today

• Hyperliquid share: Approximately 40%

Results:

• Annualized Buyback: Approximately $66.8 billion

• At 8.5x → Implied Market Cap ≈ $568 billion circulating

• HYPE around 337 million → Implied Price ≈ $160–180

Important Note:

These are not price targets. They do not include additional upside potential from HyperEVM gas fees, new products, overall market sentiment, or any changes in multipliers (upward or downward).

They merely showcase:

• Adoption of the current fee/buyback economic model

• Application of a fixed 8.5x market cap/buyback ratio

• Allowing trading volume and market share to drive buyback figure changes

Assuming a full altcoin season in 2026 and the bull market scenario becoming a reality, I believe $250 for HYPE is a realistic number.

Why I'm Bullish

The reasons why this setup intrigues me are as follows:

• Real, Visible Cash Flow: Hyperliquid has been generating over $1.3 billion in protocol revenue annually and allocating approximately 97% of it to HYPE buybacks.

• Simple, Aggressive Design: Channeling 97% of all exchange fees into an open-market HYPE buyback stabilization fund is as close to the purest form of tokenomics as it gets.

• Perpetual DEX Growth: On-chain perpetual contracts are truly taking share from centralized exchange derivatives.

• Hyperliquid has repeatedly led in daily DeFi revenue and buybacks. Potential value of HyperEVM: More applications and HIP-3 markets mean more HYPE gas fee consumption + more fee channels injecting into the same stabilization fund.

Putting it all together: Volume growth + high fee share + 97% buyback + 8.5x multiplier provide a very clear and logical path for price appreciation if Hyperliquid continues to perform well.

Final Thoughts

For me, the bullish thesis for HYPE isn't about narrative-driven "digital ascension" but rather:

• A perpetual DEX + L1 combo with extremely high liquidity and depth that has already generated billions of dollars in trading volume.

• A token model where approximately 97% of trading fees are mechanically cycled back into HYPE buybacks.

That's the basis of my extremely bullish stance on HYPE.

Original Article Link

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